The results of this forecast model

The results of this forecast model are generally consistent with those of other studies. All of the analyses conclude that LED lighting will have tremendous growth over the remainder of this decade, and roughly comprise 50% of all lighting sales by 2020. Though it is not presented in the above Table 3.10, most studies expect LEDs to continue their growth, with some models predicting 2030 market share as high as 90%.An interesting observation that can be gleaned from Table 3.10 is that all other things being equal, generally the more recent a forecast is, the more optimistic its anticipated market share. This is witnessed in the DOE reports as well as the McKinsey analyses. This report is the first of the DOE SSL Program’s forecast analyses that have calibrated the U.S. lighting market model using LED sales and shipment data provided by manufacturers, distributors, retailers as well as industry associations. This track record makes it possible to calibrate the lighting market model outputs for future years based on the actual pattern by which LEDs have gained market share thus far, effectively improving the accuracy of the predictions. The calibration to LED sales and shipment data indicated that market penetration is higher and moving more rapid than was estimated in past iterations of the U.S. lighting market model, and thus this is properly reflected in this 2014 report.